Sep 06

Latest On Category 5 Hurricane Irma; Still Maintaining Strength

To say Hurricane Irma is resilient might be the biggest understatement of the year. Irma continues to devastate the eastern islands of the Caribbean with 185 mph winds and will continue to do so in the days to come. Here is the 5 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Warnings in place for all …

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Sep 05

The Latest On Category 5 Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma continues its westward journey this evening as a formidable beast in the Atlantic. As of the 5 PM National Hurricane Center advisory, Irma is packing sustained winds of 185 mph, a “buzzsaw” by meteorological standards. Here is the latest forecast track for Irma. Note the slight shift north between Saturday and Sunday evening. …

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Aug 13

2017 Solar Eclipse Outlook: Part 1

By now, everyone has their places ready and arrangements made for the solar eclipse that is to occur Monday, August 21st, 2017. As a note of extreme caution, when viewing the eclipse, make certain that you have the proper, certified visual gear to watch the eclipse in safety. For more info on viewing safety, visit: https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/safety. …

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Aug 05

Latest & Thoughts On Invest 90L In The Caribbean And Invest 99L In The Atlantic

To start the month, we are seeing an upswing in Atlantic tropical activity. Climatologically, this upswing is falling into perfect alignment with the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane season which spans, historically, across August and September. Looking at the latest NHC discussions, we note two areas of interest: (1) a wave in the southern Caribbean …

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Jan 03

Weekend Winter Storm Threat For The Southeast, Mid-Atlantic.

Confidence continues to increase seemingly by the hour on the threat for a potentially significant winter storm for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States this weekend. And sadly, that first sentence is about the only thing that we know with any certainty at this point, but that we study all of the …

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Dec 13

Winter Storm Threat This Weekend; Ice Storm Possible in Some Areas

As I noted in my winter forecast and across many posts on social media, December would be a transitional month as we shift into a more volatile weather pattern favoring a more active storm path and increase bouts of colder air. Nearly two weeks into December, and that idea has come to fruition. As we …

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Oct 05

Hurricane Matthew: A Concerning, Heightened Threat For East Florida, Southeast Coast.

Hurricane Matthew already has a very lengthy resume and track record as it barrels into the Bahamas, having torn through parts of Haiti and Cuba. Matthew continues to remain a high-end Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph sustained winds. Now that is entering the Bahamas, there is increased water real-estate, water that is very warm …

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Aug 31

Tropical Storm Hermine: News, Notes and Concerns

As of earlier today, Tropical Storm Hermine had formed in the Gulf of Mexico as expected. Right off the bat, what concerned me was that it was stationary in the Gulf as convection was really flaring up. What does that mean? It was beginning to really develop as it has been in an environment most …

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Aug 30

Tropical Depression 9: News, Notes and Concerns

Nearly two weeks later and Tropical Depression Nine (TD 9) continues to march onward, despite the plethora of rumors and forecast a week ago that called for its demise as it tracked north of Hispaniola and Cuba. As of this evening, TD 9 is continuing to show signs of convection with new thunderstorms firing on …

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Aug 21

Winter 2016-2017: Preliminary Outlook

Another year is more than halfway in the books and as we have a month left until we reach the autumnal equinox, this is the time of the year I shed some insight as to what the upcoming winter could spell for us. Now keep in mind, as with any long-range outlook that spans the …

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Jun 20

Severe Weather The Theme This Week Across The East; Wednesday Looks Concerning

The heat is real, severe weather season is ramping up and today, we officially begin astronomical summer. Over the next several days, we will see several waves of severe weather impact parts of the upper Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions. TODAY: Beginning today, strong to severe storms will be possible from northern …

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Jun 09

Severe Weather Threat Moves To The Great Lakes On Saturday

As we head through the week and as we approach the weekend, particularly, Saturday, all the buzz in the weather world has been centered on the threat for severe weather across parts of the Great Lakes. It’s received a good deal of attention since the forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center had outlined a Day …

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Jun 05

Severe Weather Event For the Mid-Atlantic, Eastern Seaboard on Sunday; A Few Tornadoes Possible

Before I delve into the details of this article, please note what the last two words of the article headliner states, and understand what they mean… “Tornadoes Possible”. This means that dynamic support is favorable for the threat for tornadoes. It does not state that a major tornado outbreak is expected. The biggest battle in …

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May 27

Soon To Be Tropical Storm Bonnie To Impact Holiday Weekend Across Southeast Coast

As we head into Memorial Day weekend, confidence in the development of a tropical storm of the Southeast US coast continues to grow. The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of South Carolina in anticipation of a land-falling tropical cyclone around midday Sunday. If this tropical depression does …

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May 25

The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season: How Will It Shape Up?

A week from today, commences the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. In recent years, we’ve encountered historically low numbers in terms of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes across the Atlantic Basin and Gulf of Mexico as these regions have seen minimal tropical activity.  Early on, global model guidance has been hinting at the tale of a …

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Apr 24

Significant, Multi-Day Severe Weather Event Likely Tues/Weds; Strong Tornadoes Possible.

We are seeing the overall weather pattern becoming increasingly volatile and supportive of more frequent, intense severe weather episodes. A volatile pattern such as the one we’re heading into is very common in a transition period from an El Nino phase to a La Nina phase, as the overall dynamic support and pattern becomes ripe …

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Oct 16

First Look At Thoughts On Winter 2017-18

When we look how our atmosphere responds to perturbations, this is what we call weather. The weather we experience is cyclical, both climatologically and globally. What may happen in Siberia will have some type of impact on the United States’ weather in the future, a general rule of thumb is around 21 days. Why do …

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Jan 08

A Botched Forecast: What Went Wrong and How We Get Better

The hate mail rolled in today, mostly stemming from folks not getting the forecast amount of snow in their backyards or that the snowfall amounts were underdone. We “try” to predict the behavior of a science that is far from perfect, and more times than not, we come up short. COMPUTER ERROR: Since the start …

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