Widespread Severe Weather Monday/Tuesday

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Widespread Severe Weather Monday/Tuesday

Category : Severe Weather

As we begin the week, a classic Fall severe weather setup looks likely Monday and Tuesday. Beginning tonight and progressing through the overnight hours, severe storms are expected to continue developing across the southern Plains, especially from northern Texas to southeast Oklahoma where damaging winds and hail will be the main threats along with the potential for an isolated tornado or two. A more marginal tornado threat exists from northern Mississippi to southern Kentucky.

Tonight’s SPC Tornado Probability Outlook…


SPC Tornado Probability Outlook for Sunday Overnight


Monday is when things really look to kick off. Widespread severe weather will be possible from eastern Texas to the lower Great Lakes. While tomorrow’s main threat looks to come in the form of damaging, straightline winds, all modes of severe weather will be possible including the potential for some tornadoes.

Here is the SPC Outlook for Monday/Monday Night…


SPC Severe Probability Outlook for Monday


Below is the latest model guidance, as I shared in an earlier post, via the hi-resolution NAM that shows projected radar tomorrow (Monday) evening. This shows a massive squall line from southwest Louisiana to western Illinois. Associated with this squall line will be the potential for damaging winds, hail, and a few embedded tornadoes. As we look ahead of the squall line, we must be alert at the potential for supercells thunderstorms that could develop ahead of the mainline of storms. Any storms that do develop and are able to remain discrete, or independent, of the mainline will have the potential to grow and mature into supercell thunderstorms, capable of producing tornadoes. This doesn’t mean that this is guaranteed to occur, but the tornado potential becomes greater in this instance.


Hi-Resolution NAM valid Monday Evening


As we move to Tuesday, the threat moves to the eastern Gulf states up to around the east Tennessee/west North Carolina border. The main threats, again, will be the potential for damaging winds and a few tornadoes.

Here is the SPC Outlook for Tuesday…


SPC Severe Probability Outlook for Tuesday


As we move through the next few days, have a safety plan in place for you and your family and make sure your cell phones, NOAA weather radios and any other information or contact device are charged and ready to go. If all these things are in place and appropriate safety measures are taken, you’ll be fine. Pay attention to the latest weather information and warnings and please, please respect these storms, respect the warnings…


About Author

John Kassell

He discovered his interest in weather as a child. Over the years, that interest developed into a passion, and moreover, into a way of life. He graduated from the University of Akron in 2010 with a B.S. in Geographic Information Sciences and a concentration in Climatology.

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