Arctic Air On The Way Next Week

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Arctic Air On The Way Next Week

Category : Top Weather Stories

As we head into next week and beyond, much of the central and eastern US will likely experience the coldest air of the season so far. The driving force behind this potentially powerful wave of cold air will be the recurve of Typhoon Nuri in the western Pacific.

Current Satellite view of Typhoon Nuri…

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You’re probably thinking, how could a storm that far out be responsible for such a cold air mass across parts of the US. Over the next several days and into the weekend, Nuri is expected to regain strength and become a potent storm system in the northern Pacific as it approaches the Aleutian Islands, the long chain of islands off the southwest coast of mainland Alaska.

European model guidance is showing an incredibly powerful storm system in the northern Pacific by early Sunday morning along the western most Aleutian Islands. Minimal pressure at its peak is expected to be anywhere between 920 and 940 mb. This is the equivalent pressure reading of a powerful category 4 hurricane.

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ECMWF MSLP – Courtesy WxBell Analytics

This system will essentially cause a displacement in the jet stream and cause a massive dip in jet stream over the eastern states and even over parts of the central states. This dip in the jet stream will allow for a displacement of cold, Arctic air to surge down into the states, essentially opening the flood gates for very cold air.

Let’s take a look at 3 runs of the latest European computer forecast model… this will give a very solid understanding of how the cold air will be distributed across much of the US next week…

Next Monday, cold air becomes displaced from the Arctic…

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Temperature Anomalies at the lowest 5k ft of the atmosphere – Courtesy of WxBell Analytics

Next Tuesday, this displaced cold air surges into the states because of the massive dip in the jet stream caused by the powerful system in the northern Pacific from days before…

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Temperature Anomalies at the lowest 5k ft of the atmosphere – Courtesy of WxBell Analytics

By the middle of next week and beyond, the cold air has plunged well into the lower 48…

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Temperature Anomalies at the lowest 5k ft of the atmosphere – Courtesy of WxBell Analytics

GFS model guidance shows by the middle of next week, a very cold air mass will blanket much of the central and eastern US…

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GFS Temperature Anomalies – Courtesy of WxBell Analytics

Looking at what the guys at the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) are thinking about next week and they are in agreement… for well, well below normal temperatures, it doesn’t get much bluer than that… That’s just cold…

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6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook

Our season’s first taste of very cold air is expected next week and it will be making a statement. Many areas will see temperatures 10-20° below what are considered average temperatures for this time of the year and I could see some spots seeing temperatures 30° below normal. I would not be surprised to see some low temperatures flirt with teens and 20s.

Bottom line… time to get the heavier coats out and bundle up for what appears to be the first wave of Arctic air this season!

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About Author

John Kassell

He discovered his interest in weather as a child. Over the years, that interest developed into a passion, and moreover, into a way of life. He graduated from the University of Akron in 2010 with a B.S. in Geographic Information Sciences and a concentration in Climatology.

1 Comment

Pam Craft

November 6, 2014 at 7:56 am

Awesome info John. Hope we can see some snow too (?)

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