Significant, Multi-Day Severe Weather Event Likely Tues/Weds; Strong Tornadoes Possible.
We are seeing the overall weather pattern becoming increasingly volatile and supportive of more frequent, intense severe weather episodes. A volatile pattern such as the one we’re heading into is very common in a transition period from an El Nino phase to a La Nina phase, as the overall dynamic support and pattern becomes ripe for such severe weather events. Model output continues to illustrate with greater confidence a multi-day severe weather event, and potentially significant in intensity, Tuesday into Wednesday of the upcoming week across the central and southern Plains (Tuesday) and into the Midwest (Wednesday).
Here is the part of the SPC forecast discussion notes pertaining to the severe weather situation for Tuesday…
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS TO THE DELMARVA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
The Storm Prediction Center has an “enhanced” risk outlined from northern Texas to central Kansas, with the standard “slight” risk from Lincoln, Nebraska to around Waco, Texas.
Within the “enhanced” risk outline will come the greatest threat for significant severe weather including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, with some strong tornadoes possible. In the “slight” risk outline, all modes of severe weather will be possible, but the threat won’t be as significant, but the threat will absolutely still be there for these areas.
From central Texas to southern Nebraska, the Storm Prediction Center has a hatched risk in place which suggests a 10% or greater probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any given point in that hatched area. While 10% may not seem entirely startling, it is a significant threat indicator which must be respected.
The STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) coming from NAM guidance suggests a significant tornado threat Tuesday night (around 10 PM) across parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Please note that any value of “2” or greater indicates an increased threat for significant tornadoes.
As me move into Wednesday, the threat for severe weather pushes eastward and will impact parts of the Midwest and Mid-Mississippi Valley. All modes of severe weather will be possible, again, particularly along the southern fringe of the storm threat outline.
PLAN AHEAD: Have a safety plan in place and ready to go when severe weather transpires. Know your tornado safety plan and know where your tornado safety place is. Heed the warnings. Every second is precious to seek shelter.
STAY CALM: It’s only a human emotion to become panic-stricken during severe weather, but you must remain calm and collective. Think with a clear and concise mind and you will be fine.