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May 27

Soon To Be Tropical Storm Bonnie To Impact Holiday Weekend Across Southeast Coast

As we head into Memorial Day weekend, confidence in the development of a tropical storm of the Southeast US coast continues to grow. The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire coast of South Carolina in anticipation of a land-falling tropical cyclone around midday Sunday.

205000W5_NL_sm

If this tropical depression does strengthen into a tropical storm, it would be named “Bonnie”, the second named storm of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The question then becomes, does it strengthen before reaching the South Carolina coastline? All model guidance points to, yes, to at least some degree.

Here is a look at model guidance for forecast intensity… while most keep this tropical depression at its current strength through the entirety of its life, several do strengthen this system into tropical storm strength, which I believe is very possible and a realistic solution given the warm waters off the Southeast US coastline that this system will be trekking through. There is also very weak wind shear in the primary area of development. Wind shear is the changing of wind speeds and wind direction through the atmosphere, an atmospheric dynamic that hinders tropical storm development as it would tear the storm apart. We note that very warm waters of the Southeast US coast acts as fuel to strengthen this system into a tropical storm as well as weak wind shear. Both of these factors combined translate well into Tropical Depression Two strengthening into Tropical Storm Bonnie over the next 12-24 hours.

e_us_coast_cdas1_anom

A look at the spaghetti plot showing the latest model guidance tracks for this system. A pretty clear indication of where this system is headed… could change though over the next 12-24 hours, but these would likely just be slight adjustments in track.

02L_tracks_latest

A few of the threats we’re looking at with this system is strong winds, rough surf, the potential for some beach erosion, and plenty of rain moving through the next week. Here is a look at QPF totals (rainfall amounts) through next Friday… Much of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic will see a good amount of rain over the next 7 days.

wpc_total_precip_se_28

While this tropical system will threaten outdoor holiday festivities, please don’t become alarmed by the hype of mainstream media. This is garden-variety tropical system, but at the same time, it must be respected. Take all necessary safety measures and precautions and you will be fine. More to come…

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