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Jun 20

Severe Weather The Theme This Week Across The East; Wednesday Looks Concerning

The heat is real, severe weather season is ramping up and today, we officially begin astronomical summer. Over the next several days, we will see several waves of severe weather impact parts of the upper Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

TODAY: Beginning today, strong to severe storms will be possible from northern Missouri to western New York, traversing the Ohio Valley as the standard “slight” risk is in place. The tornado threat appears minimal, as hail and damaging winds appear to be the main threats this afternoon and into the evening hours, the farther east you are in the risk area…

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TUESDAY: The threat for severe weather will resurface across parts of the upper Plains, Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions, as again, the standard “slight” risks are in place. Storms are likely to be isolated in nature, but some could reach severe limits. The main threats for Tuesday will again be from hail and damaging winds while the tornado threat appears minimal.

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WEDNESDAY: Off all days this week, Wednesday’s severe weather threat looms largest as the threat could be a doozy. The SPC has placed a Day-3 “enhanced” risk from eastern Iowa to western Ohio with the threat for widespread damaging winds, tornadoes and hail.

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We note a 30% hatched risk area from eastern Iowa to western Ohio. This suggests an increased threat for severe weather happening within 10 miles of any given point within that hatched area.

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Model output suggest heightened Energy Helicity values across the western Great Lakes around dinner time (6-7pm). Any value above 1, suggest the development of supercells and the threat for tornadoes. The higher the these values are, the greater the threat for significant tornadoes. Energy Helicity values are a combination of CAPE (convective energy – thunderstorm fuel) and Helicity. EHI is a very good determinant for tornado potential.

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