The Latest on Invest 99L; Do Not Let Your Guard Down, Yet.
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen on social media from Facebook to Twitter that Invest 99L is done. For those unaware, Invest 99L is the tropical wave north of Hispaniola and Cuba at the moment. There is no doubt that this tropical wave is on life support, lacking any real organization, but showing signs of some life with sporadic bursts of convection. There have been several satellite observations illustrating that there is circulation within Invest 99L, but what is needed for that circulation to be closed off in order for this system to further develop. With an open circulation (center displaced from convection) as we’ve seen over the last several days, this allows for northerly winds and drier air to attack the system (shear) and prevent further development.
Here is the latest satellite image of Invest 99L…
THE LATEST: Invest 99L is a disorganized system at the moment, while showing signs of some life with period episodes of increased convection. Its true test will be how it interacts with Cuba over the next few days. Does it barrel into northern Cuba, killing the system off entirely, or does it skirt in a northwesterly heading, just missing Cuba and continue on a track toward far Southern Florida and through the Florida Keys and into the Gulf? The final destination and life expectancy of this system is really unknown to this point.
The NHC has increased the chances of Invest 99L forming into a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days up to 60%; a medium chance.
The latest model plots for Invest 99L…
Something to note with the new set of model plots coming in this morning… the 0z data had many more of the member tracks taking the system into Cuba. While a handful still do, many have backed off that idea… just something to keep in mind.
MY THOUGHTS: I’m going to stray away from popular thought, which is normally the case for me, and give you my speculation on the system. Understand though, this is just speculation, and not a forecast.
*I do think this system will pull through to survive. With the trough in the western Atlantic, I still suspect that the trough will act as a steering agent and will guide the system into a more northwesterly heading over the next 24-36 hours, bypassing Cuba.
*With the very warm waters across the Bahamas, this would really allow the system to gain strength and allow for the circulation to close off, protecting it from shear and dry air.
*As the system gets closer to the Bahamas, the amounts of wind shear drop off significantly, basically to nothing. Light winds aloft dominate around the Bahamas. Something to watch for.
DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN: If the system can in fact survive and track into the Gulf, then we have an entirely new situation that is concerning. I shared this model output on my Facebook account last night, illustrating the warm waters that inhabit the Gulf of Mexico. With temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90s, this would act as jet fuel if the system can make it into the Gulf of Mexico for further intensification of this system. But for now, we have to wait and watch…
CALL TO ACTION: With all of this in mind, and yes… there is a lot of information here, be vigilant, be watchful and stay up to date with the latest information from a trusted weather source, and I cannot stress trustful enough. Folks from Southern Florida to the Western Gulf, keep up to date with the latest information. Yes, this is a large area to put under the “stay alert” mindset, but at right now with as many uncertainties behind this system as there are, it’s best to have you prepared, just in case that time comes.
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